Changing Tide?

Yesterday two states elected Republican governors in their general elections. In the aftermath of these elections the question being droned on be the media is "how does this affect Lord Obama". Is this a sign of more defeats for the dems? Has Obama lost his charm? Does the country really care?

The Republicans are giddy as you might imagine. Let's face it, they really haven't had much good news lately. After butt-kickings in the last two general elections they are grateful for anything that resembles a victory. So they are finally getting some media attention because, as we all know, the media are a bunch of whores and will boot you for the exciting story. However, before we start extrapolating these two victories into running the liberals out of Washington let's examine why the the Republicans won.

In the case of Virginia you really need to discard the results of the 2008 election as an abberation. Obama was the beneficiary of a national sentiment for change and got people out to vote because of the historic nature of his candidacy. Many of those folks had never voted before and likely did not vote yesterday. Therefore the usual suspects in Virginia carried the day; a solidly red state in recent memory.

In New Jersey, an historically Democrat stronghold, John Corzine lost to the Republican, Christopher Christie. This is the first time a Republican has won a statewide election since 1997. Obama campaigned hard for Corzine and this was seen as a test of Obama's coattails. The problem is there aren't enough coattails to cover a bad candidate. Corzine was pretty much universally disliked with some approval ratings less than 20%. You can dress a duck up but he is still a duck! In this case a butt-ugly one!

The more important thing the Republicans should take from these elections is that pocketbook issues still rule the day. In the illustrious words of our former Phillanderer in Chief "It's the economy stupid". If we are still looking at high unemployment, anemic growth in the economy, and an administration grasping for good news where little exists, you will most likely see net gains by Republicans. So the Republicans should take a page from the Dems playbook and relentlessly talk down the economy for the next year. It doesn't have to be true, just say it often enough and it will become fact. The challenge they face is getting the same play the Dems get in the media.

So take heart, Republicans, but don't get cocky. You had the power for years then squandered it. That's why you are where you are. Governing is about more than just the chase. You have to know what to do with the power when you get it.